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Sam Altman's leaked internal note and the AI race

Matthew Berman shared a very sharp breakdown on the evolving AI race and why Google may now be the best-positioned player. 📝 This was on the back of a leaked internal note to the OpenAI team, Sam Altman reportedly: - Acknowledged that Google has “caught up” and that Gemini will create real economic headwinds - Warned of “rough vibes ahead” as the performance gap closes - Admitted OpenAI has to do three hard things at the same time: be the best research lab, the best AI infrastructure company, and the best AI product platform – and still said he wouldn’t trade positions with any other company 💡 Matthew's core insight: this is no longer a “who has the best model?

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Originally posted on LinkedIn · 10 reactions · 2 comments · View original →

Sam Altman's leaked internal note and the AI race

Matthew Berman shared a very sharp breakdown on the evolving AI race and why Google may now be the best-positioned player.

📝 This was on the back of a leaked internal note to the OpenAI team, Sam Altman reportedly:

  • Acknowledged that Google has “caught up” and that Gemini will create real economic headwinds

  • Warned of “rough vibes ahead” as the performance gap closes

  • Admitted OpenAI has to do three hard things at the same time: be the best research lab, the best AI infrastructure company, and the best AI product platform – and still said he wouldn’t trade positions with any other company

  • Matthew's core insight: this is no longer a “who has the best model?” contest. It’s a full‑stack strategy game spanning:

  • Frontier models

  • AI infrastructure

  • Diversified Models

  • Custom silicon

  • Existing revenue

  • Top Researchers

  • Consumer hardware

  • Large User base

  • Data

  • Deep integration into everyday products

  • ️ Through that lens, Google now looks unusually strong:

  • Gemini 3 Pro has effectively closed the perceived model performance gap, removing OpenAI’s clear technical lead and putting real pressure on the rest of the field.

  • Google’s moat is holistic, not just technical – TPUs, Google Cloud, Android, Search, YouTube, Maps, Workspace and Gmail all compound into a uniquely powerful AI platform.

  • Independent labs like OpenAI and Anthropic face a structurally harder journey – they must be the best research lab, infra provider and platform company, largely funded by external capital, while hyperscalers can fund multiple big bets from existing cashflows.

  • Microsoft looks like the clear #2 strategically – even without owning the top frontier model – by leaning into “serve every model” across Azure and deeply integrating AI into Office and Windows.

Today, “ChatGPT” is still synonymous with AI for most people. But as Matthew highlights, the long‑term winners will be those who embed AI into devices, workflows and data ecosystems at scale.